Nationwide Study in France To Predict One Year Major Bleeding and Validate the OAC3-PAD Score in Patients Undergoing Revascularisation for Lower Extremity Arterial Disease

Objective: Antithrombotic strategies are currently recommended for the treatment of lower extremity artery disease (LEAD) but specific scores to assess the risk of bleeding in these patients are scarce. To fill the gap, the OAC3-PAD bleeding score was recently developed and validated in German cohorts. The aim of this study was to determine whether this score performs appropriately in another real world nationwide cohort.

Methods: This 10 year retrospective, multicentre study based on French national electronic health data included patients who underwent revascularisation for LEAD between January 2013 and June 2022. The OAC3-PAD score was calculated and from this, the population was classified into four groups: low, low to moderate, moderate to high and high risk. A binary logistic regression model was applied, with major bleeding occurring at one year (defined using the International Classification of Diseases ICD-10) as the dependent variable. The performance of the OAC3-PAD bleeding score was investigated using a receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results: Among 161 205 patients hospitalised for LEAD treatment in French institutions, the one year incidence of major bleeding was 13 672 patients (8.5%). The distribution of the population according to the OAC3-PAD bleeding score was: 88 835 patients (55.1%), 34 369 (21.3%), 27 914 (17.3%), and 10 087 (6.3%) in the low, low to moderate, moderate to high, and high risk groups, respectively; with an incidence of one year major bleeding of 5.0%, 9.8%, 13.2%, and 21.3%. The OAC3-PAD model achieved an AUC of 0.650 to predict one year major bleeding following LEAD repair (95% CI 0.645 – 0.655), with a sensitivity of 0.67 and a specificity of 0.57.

Conclusion: This nationwide analysis confirmed the accuracy of the OAC3-PAD model to predict one year major bleeding and served as external validation. Although further studies are required, it adds evidence and perspectives to further generalise its use to guide the management of patients with LEAD.